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How will the climate change at my BC property by the 2050s?

A report gives what 26 climate models project at the lot by the 2050s for days over 30 °C, the longest frost-free run and winter's snow share, each against the same models' 1971-2000.

Opens the report at this answer. A PID always finds the lot; an address needs an exact match.

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What the answer means

The models are downscaled to a grid by Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. Every BC place's figures are below.

Projections, not forecasts
The figures are the median of 26 models under SSP2-4.5, a middle path for emissions, with the 10th to 90th percentile of the models as the range. They say what a usual year around 2041 to 2070 could look like if emissions follow that path, not what any year will bring.
Set against the models' past
Each figure is compared with the same models' 1971-2000, not with a weather station's normals. The models work on a grid of about 9 by 6 km, which averages a valley floor with the slopes around it, so in the mountains their figures can sit well off a valley station's. The change between the two periods says more than either number.
Hot days
Days a year whose high passes 30 °C. In the dry southern valleys (the Okanagan, the Thompson) the models' median roughly doubles, from about 20 a year to 40 or more; on the coast and in the north, from one or two to a handful.
Frost-free run
The longest stretch of days with the low at or above 0 °C, a rough guide to the growing season. A longer run means earlier springs and later falls, and more pests that cold winters used to hold back.
Snow in winter
The share of December to February precipitation that falls as snow, our reading of each model's snowfall over its precipitation. Where it drops, more winter storms come as rain: more runoff and ice on the roads, less snowpack to feed streams and wells in summer.
What it means for a buyer
For a house, more hot days ask about cooling and shade; less snow in winter can mean wetter ground and more freeze and thaw. The report's Climate section gives the station's normals beside the projections, and the wildfire, floodplain and wells sections say what the land itself shows.

These are model figures for a grid cell at one point, read by us, not measurements at the lot; a lot on a slope or by a lake can run cooler or warmer than its cell.

Source: Statistically downscaled climate indices from CMIP6 global climate models (CanDCS-M6), Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, via the Canadian Centre for Climate Services (Open Government Licence – Canada).

By place

All 319 of BC's places, each at one point: the change the models' median gives from their 1971-2000 to 2041-2070 under SSP2-4.5, then, small, the models' own figures (1971-2000 → 2041-2070) and their range for 2041-2070, which isn't a range of the change. Listed by name, not ranked: the grid averages valley floors with the slopes around them.

Place, and the point readDays a year over 30 °CLongest frost-free runWinter precipitation as snow
100 Mile House
at the town centre
+8 days
models: 2 → 10, 2050s range 6 to 24
+35 days
models: 100 → 135, 2050s range 125 to 155
−6 points
models: 92% → 86%, 2050s range 76% to 88%
Abbotsford
at the town centre
+10 days
models: 3 → 13, 2050s range 8 to 30
+70 days
models: 220 → 290, 2050s range 265 to 315
−6 points
models: 12% → 6%, 2050s range 4% to 8%
Alberni-Clayoquot, Electoral Area A
at Bamfield
about the same
models: under 1 → under 1, 2050s range under 1 to 1
+65 days
models: 220 → 285, 2050s range 255 to 335
−6 points
models: 8% → 2%, 2050s range 0% to 4%
Alberni-Clayoquot, Electoral Area B
at Port Alberni
+1 day
models: under 1 → 1, 2050s range 1 to 5
+30 days
models: 170 → 200, 2050s range 190 to 240
−22 points
models: 48% → 26%, 2050s range 14% to 28%
Alberni-Clayoquot, Electoral Area C
at Kennedy Lake
about the same
models: under 1 → under 1, 2050s range under 1 to 1
+50 days
models: 200 → 250, 2050s range 225 to 320
−10 points
models: 16% → 6%, 2050s range 2% to 8%
Alberni-Clayoquot, Electoral Area D
at Port Alberni
+8 days
models: 4 → 12, 2050s range 9 to 28
+50 days
models: 200 → 250, 2050s range 230 to 310
−10 points
models: 18% → 8%, 2050s range 4% to 10%
Alberni-Clayoquot, Electoral Area E
at Port Alberni
+8 days
models: 3 → 11, 2050s range 7 to 23
+50 days
models: 195 → 245, 2050s range 225 to 305
−12 points
models: 20% → 8%, 2050s range 4% to 10%
Alberni-Clayoquot, Electoral Area F
at Port Alberni
+6 days
models: 2 → 8, 2050s range 5 to 19
+50 days
models: 190 → 240, 2050s range 220 to 300
−14 points
models: 24% → 10%, 2050s range 4% to 12%
Alert Bay
at the town centre
about the same
models: under 1 → under 1, 2050s range under 1 to 1
+70 days
models: 225 → 295, 2050s range 270 to 330
−6 points
models: 8% → 2%, 2050s range 2% to 4%
Anmore
at the town centre
+5 days
models: 1 → 6, 2050s range 2 to 14
+70 days
models: 215 → 285, 2050s range 260 to 305
−8 points
models: 14% → 6%, 2050s range 4% to 8%
Armstrong
at the town centre
+21 days
models: 21 → 42, 2050s range 36 to 65
+50 days
models: 150 → 200, 2050s range 170 to 220
−12 points
models: 78% → 66%, 2050s range 54% to 68%
Ashcroft
at the town centre
+20 days
models: 21 → 41, 2050s range 35 to 66
+40 days
models: 160 → 200, 2050s range 175 to 215
−12 points
models: 74% → 62%, 2050s range 52% to 66%
Barriere
at the town centre
+19 days
models: 18 → 37, 2050s range 30 to 59
+35 days
models: 135 → 170, 2050s range 150 to 195
−10 points
models: 84% → 74%, 2050s range 64% to 78%
Belcarra
at the town centre
+5 days
models: 1 → 6, 2050s range 2 to 14
+70 days
models: 215 → 285, 2050s range 260 to 305
−8 points
models: 14% → 6%, 2050s range 4% to 8%
Bowen Island
at the town centre
+3 days
models: under 1 → 3, 2050s range 2 to 9
+65 days
models: 225 → 290, 2050s range 260 to 310
−6 points
models: 12% → 6%, 2050s range 4% to 8%
Bulkley-Nechako, Electoral Area A
at Smithers
+2 days
models: 1 → 3, 2050s range 2 to 8
+45 days
models: 105 → 150, 2050s range 130 to 170
−8 points
models: 90% → 82%, 2050s range 74% to 86%
Bulkley-Nechako, Electoral Area B
at Burns Lake
+3 days
models: under 1 → 3, 2050s range 2 to 8
+35 days
models: 100 → 135, 2050s range 125 to 160
−4 points
models: 92% → 88%, 2050s range 80% to 90%
Bulkley-Nechako, Electoral Area C
at Fort St. James
+4 days
models: 1 → 5, 2050s range 3 to 12
+40 days
models: 100 → 140, 2050s range 130 to 160
−4 points
models: 94% → 90%, 2050s range 82% to 92%
Bulkley-Nechako, Electoral Area D
at Fraser Lake
+5 days
models: 1 → 6, 2050s range 3 to 13
+40 days
models: 100 → 140, 2050s range 125 to 160
−6 points
models: 94% → 88%, 2050s range 82% to 90%
Bulkley-Nechako, Electoral Area E
at Tchesinkut Lake
+4 days
models: 1 → 5, 2050s range 3 to 12
+40 days
models: 100 → 140, 2050s range 125 to 165
−4 points
models: 92% → 88%, 2050s range 80% to 90%
Bulkley-Nechako, Electoral Area F
at Vanderhoof
+7 days
models: 2 → 9, 2050s range 6 to 19
+35 days
models: 105 → 140, 2050s range 130 to 160
−6 points
models: 94% → 88%, 2050s range 82% to 90%
Bulkley-Nechako, Electoral Area G
at Topley
+3 days
models: under 1 → 3, 2050s range 2 to 7
+40 days
models: 95 → 135, 2050s range 125 to 160
−6 points
models: 92% → 86%, 2050s range 80% to 90%
Burnaby
at the town centre
+6 days
models: 1 → 7, 2050s range 4 to 17
+65 days
models: 235 → 300, 2050s range 275 to 315
−6 points
models: 10% → 4%, 2050s range 2% to 6%
Burns Lake
at the town centre
+3 days
models: under 1 → 3, 2050s range 2 to 8
+35 days
models: 100 → 135, 2050s range 125 to 160
−4 points
models: 92% → 88%, 2050s range 80% to 90%
Cache Creek
at the town centre
+17 days
models: 13 → 30, 2050s range 24 to 51
+30 days
models: 145 → 175, 2050s range 160 to 200
−12 points
models: 82% → 70%, 2050s range 62% to 74%
Campbell River
at the town centre
+6 days
models: 2 → 8, 2050s range 5 to 19
+65 days
models: 200 → 265, 2050s range 235 to 310
−10 points
models: 16% → 6%, 2050s range 4% to 8%
Canal Flats
at the town centre
+21 days
models: 11 → 32, 2050s range 26 to 53
+30 days
models: 120 → 150, 2050s range 135 to 170
−6 points
models: 90% → 84%, 2050s range 74% to 86%
Cariboo, Electoral Area A
at Quesnel
+13 days
models: 6 → 19, 2050s range 14 to 33
+35 days
models: 125 → 160, 2050s range 145 to 175
−6 points
models: 86% → 80%, 2050s range 70% to 82%
Cariboo, Electoral Area B
at Bouchie Lake
+10 days
models: 3 → 13, 2050s range 10 to 26
+35 days
models: 115 → 150, 2050s range 135 to 165
−8 points
models: 90% → 82%, 2050s range 74% to 86%
Cariboo, Electoral Area C
at Quesnel
+10 days
models: 4 → 14, 2050s range 10 to 27
+30 days
models: 120 → 150, 2050s range 140 to 170
−6 points
models: 88% → 82%, 2050s range 72% to 84%
Cariboo, Electoral Area D
at Williams Lake
+10 days
models: 3 → 13, 2050s range 10 to 28
+35 days
models: 110 → 145, 2050s range 135 to 165
−6 points
models: 90% → 84%, 2050s range 76% to 86%
Cariboo, Electoral Area E
at Williams Lake
+13 days
models: 6 → 19, 2050s range 14 to 35
+40 days
models: 115 → 155, 2050s range 140 to 170
−8 points
models: 90% → 82%, 2050s range 74% to 86%
Cariboo, Electoral Area F
at 150 Mile House
+13 days
models: 6 → 19, 2050s range 14 to 35
+40 days
models: 115 → 155, 2050s range 140 to 170
−8 points
models: 90% → 82%, 2050s range 74% to 86%
Cariboo, Electoral Area G
at 108 Mile Ranch
+11 days
models: 3 → 14, 2050s range 10 to 29
+30 days
models: 105 → 135, 2050s range 130 to 160
−6 points
models: 90% → 84%, 2050s range 76% to 88%

Showing the first 34 of 319 places. Show all 319, or find yours above.

The range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 26 models. The point is the town centre, in an electoral area its main settled place, else the middle. Read by us from the Canadian Centre for Climate Services' CanDCS-M6 indices.

Buying rural land? Before you buy rural land in BC: the nine questions that decide an offer, on one printable page.